Well, it’s the 4th of January, 2010 and I have so far written and crossed out 2009 at least half a dozen times.  My brain is apparently reluctant to accept that it is 2010.  After all, in a few minutes I will be braving the cold on the way to a (probably frozen) Metro North train, instead of firing up my jet pack or better yet beaming myself into the office.  On the other hand, I did see Avatar last night and that is a mind-blowing experience that definitely qualifies for 2010 (if you are among the three people who have not yet seen it, you *must* see it in 3D).

But this is not the only contrast that has me scratching my head about 2010.  Usually after going on vacation and staying away from the Internet for a week or more, I find that my mind clears up.  With respect to 2010 that has, however, failed to be the case.  Here are a couple more examples of why.

1. Stock Market.  There is the potential for at least one blockbuster Internet IPO in 2010 (see for instance Techcrunch’s top 10 IPO candidates).  If that were to happen, it might throw the door wide open for a slew of companies, sort of like Netscape’s IPO did (OK, maybe not quite that much).  At the same time though, I look at tech company valuations and valuations more broadly and can’t help thinking that the market has gotten way ahead of any real economic recovery.  And it only takes a couple of posts over at ZeroHedge to make me think we might be headed for another meltdown.  Very confusing.

2. Mobile.  Both iPhone and Blackberry adoption is continuing to grow rapidly. Google is about to release the best Android phone yet. Companies making use of new mobile capabilities (e.g. Foursquare) are receiving tons of attention. Yet at the same time, a lot of this feels precarious. Apple exercises too much control via the app store approval process (as well as app store placement and TV ads). RIM doesn’t really seem to care about developers (or making it easier to develop for the BB). Android could or is already splintering into too many devices with sufficient differences to make life hard for developers.

So at the beginning of 2010, I see tremendous opportunities but equally formidable threats almost everywhere I look (Google? International Affairs?). I am therefore starting the year (and the decade) with an unusual mix of excitement and trepidation. Does anyone else feel this way?

Well, it’s the 4th of January, 2010 and I have so far written and crossed out 2009 at least half a dozen times.  My brain is apparently reluctant to accept that it is 2010.  After all, in a few minutes I will be braving the cold on the way to a (probably frozen) Metro North train, instead of firing up my jet pack or better yet beaming myself into the office.  On the other hand, I did see Avatar last night and that is a mind-blowing experience that definitely qualifies for 2010 (if you are among the three people who have not yet seen it, you *must* see it in 3D).

But this is not the only contrast that has me scratching my head about 2010.  Usually after going on vacation and staying away from the Internet for a week or more, I find that my mind clears up.  With respect to 2010 that has, however, failed to be the case.  Here are a couple more examples of why.

1. Stock Market.  There is the potential for at least one blockbuster Internet IPO in 2010 (see for instance Techcrunch’s top 10 IPO candidates).  If that were to happen, it might throw the door wide open for a slew of companies, sort of like Netscape’s IPO did (OK, maybe not quite that much).  At the same time though, I look at tech company valuations and valuations more broadly and can’t help thinking that the market has gotten way ahead of any real economic recovery.  And it only takes a couple of posts over at ZeroHedge to make me think we might be headed for another meltdown.  Very confusing.

2. Mobile.  Both iPhone and Blackberry adoption is continuing to grow rapidly. Google is about to release the best Android phone yet. Companies making use of new mobile capabilities (e.g. Foursquare) are receiving tons of attention. Yet at the same time, a lot of this feels precarious. Apple exercises too much control via the app store approval process (as well as app store placement and TV ads). RIM doesn’t really seem to care about developers (or making it easier to develop for the BB). Android could or is already splintering into too many devices with sufficient differences to make life hard for developers.

So at the beginning of 2010, I see tremendous opportunities but equally formidable threats almost everywhere I look (Google? International Affairs?). I am therefore starting the year (and the decade) with an unusual mix of excitement and trepidation. Does anyone else feel this way?