I have a long standing interest in probability and am fascinated by how fantastical a role it plays in our lives.  Recently, I wrote about my concern regarding the Large Hadron Collider based on the “infinite” downside of some long tail events.  This weekend I read the Atlantic Monthly’s “The Sky is Falling” which provided a great summary of the recent changes in the assessment of catastrophic risk from a meteoroid strike.  It appears that the probability of a major hit occurring is significantly higher than previously assumed.  Still, the probability is low enough that this qualifies as a “black swan” event.  We have not seen a major impact in our lifetimes and the most recent significant event occurred in 1902 (?) in a remote part of Siberia.

Democracies are not very good at dealing with low probability broad risks such as meteor strikes (or global warming for that matter).  In the absence of tangible evidence, such as fragments raining down on us, most voters are unlikely to care and as a result it’s difficult (read: unpopular) for politicians to allocate resources.  The same is not true for philantropists who in theory can spend their money as they please.  I am therefore always a bit surprised to see how relatively unimaginative most philanthropic spending is.  Yes, hunger, poverty, disease, education are all important and worthy causes, but survival of the species would seem to trump all of them.  Yet it appears that research to help us cope with “black swan” events (not just meteorites, but also superbugs, extreme atmospheric change, etc.) is woefully underfunded and receives only a tiny fraction of philanthropic spending (and most of that from the “geek” philantropists, such as Bill Gates and Paul Allen).

Part of the problem is that even if one wants to give money there are no obvious places to give to.  This is a great opportunity for someone to come along and build a foundation specifically to focus on “black swan” events.  In the meantime, should you find yourself wondering what to contribute to expand your list by including the Planetary Society, where you can direct donations at Near Earth Objects Research (that would be “big rocks from the sky that might kill us all,” which is what they should really say).

I have a long standing interest in probability and am fascinated by how fantastical a role it plays in our lives.  Recently, I wrote about my concern regarding the Large Hadron Collider based on the “infinite” downside of some long tail events.  This weekend I read the Atlantic Monthly’s “The Sky is Falling” which provided a great summary of the recent changes in the assessment of catastrophic risk from a meteoroid strike.  It appears that the probability of a major hit occurring is significantly higher than previously assumed.  Still, the probability is low enough that this qualifies as a “black swan” event.  We have not seen a major impact in our lifetimes and the most recent significant event occurred in 1902 (?) in a remote part of Siberia.

Democracies are not very good at dealing with low probability broad risks such as meteor strikes (or global warming for that matter).  In the absence of tangible evidence, such as fragments raining down on us, most voters are unlikely to care and as a result it’s difficult (read: unpopular) for politicians to allocate resources.  The same is not true for philantropists who in theory can spend their money as they please.  I am therefore always a bit surprised to see how relatively unimaginative most philanthropic spending is.  Yes, hunger, poverty, disease, education are all important and worthy causes, but survival of the species would seem to trump all of them.  Yet it appears that research to help us cope with “black swan” events (not just meteorites, but also superbugs, extreme atmospheric change, etc.) is woefully underfunded and receives only a tiny fraction of philanthropic spending (and most of that from the “geek” philantropists, such as Bill Gates and Paul Allen).

Part of the problem is that even if one wants to give money there are no obvious places to give to.  This is a great opportunity for someone to come along and build a foundation specifically to focus on “black swan” events.  In the meantime, should you find yourself wondering what to contribute to expand your list by including the Planetary Society, where you can direct donations at Near Earth Objects Research (that would be “big rocks from the sky that might kill us all,” which is what they should really say).