Last Uncertainty Wednesday I introduced a definition of climate as the probability distribution over weather states. That post ended with a question about how historically observed statistics relate to this distribution. I am in Vienna Austria for a conference and the temperature yesterday got up to 70 degrees (Fahrenheit). Intellicast shows historic average high temperature for September 27 to be 65 degrees (unfortunately not saying how many years of data are averaged which is something I wi...

Last Uncertainty Wednesday I introduced a definition of climate as the probability distribution over weather states. That post ended with a question about how historically observed statistics relate to this distribution. I am in Vienna Austria for a conference and the temperature yesterday got up to 70 degrees (Fahrenheit). Intellicast shows historic average high temperature for September 27 to be 65 degrees (unfortunately not saying how many years of data are averaged which is something I wi...

The first week on my first job after college I came into work super early and left super late. At the end of the week my then boss called me into his office and said: “it’s great that you are so enthusiastic about this job, but you are setting a high bar for everyone’s expectation of you — what will they think when you come in a bit later next week?” I have never forgotten that because it embodies a critical lesson: what others expect of us is in no small part determined by our own behavior (...

The first week on my first job after college I came into work super early and left super late. At the end of the week my then boss called me into his office and said: “it’s great that you are so enthusiastic about this job, but you are setting a high bar for everyone’s expectation of you — what will they think when you come in a bit later next week?” I have never forgotten that because it embodies a critical lesson: what others expect of us is in no small part determined by our own behavior (...