Today in Uncertainty Wednesday we are coming to the last limit on observations: their impact on reality. As a quick refresher at the beginning of the series I introduced the framework in which uncertainty is the result of limits on our ability to observe and explain reality. Since then we have been working through various limits on observations, starting with a foundational limit, the resolution of observations, measurement error and cost of observation (which following a reader comment I wil...

As a quick reminder for those who may have missed the beginning, Uncertainty Wednesday is a series about, well, uncertainty. We are in the middle of limits on observations. To understand why these matter and how they relate to uncertainty, you should go back to the initial post in the series which lays out a framework. So far we have covered the following limitations on observations: foundational, resolution and measurement error. Today we will cover the cost of observation. One reaction to t...

So far in Uncertainty Wednesday we have seen two different limits on observations: the foundational limit that all observation necessarily entails compression of reality and the further compression resulting from the resolution of measurement. Today we will look at measurement error as a limit on observation. Thanks to a tweet from a reader, I have the perfect opening example for today. The following is from a show call 99% Invisible, which had an episode called “On Average” that has the foll...

Today Uncertainty Wednesday continues with limits to observations. Limits to observations are — along with limits to explanations — the key sources of uncertainty that we face. Following the discussion of foundational limits to observations from last week, next up is observational resolution (this is a category I forgot in my initial list). Last year we went on an amazing trip to India. One of the many highlights was a visit to the Jantar Mantar in Jaipur. Right in the middle of the city are ...

Last Uncertainty Wednesday I laid out the basic framework for understanding uncertainty: we use observations and explanations to have knowledge of reality. The degree of uncertainty we are facing results from the limits to our knowledge. Now I will start to tackle the limits to observations. These fall into four groups: the nature of observations (today’s post), observational (aka measurement) error, the cost of observations and the impact of observations on reality. Observations are just tha...

Understanding uncertainty, and even more so explaining it, is hard is because it requires a foundational framework — the reason that most explanations feel isolated is that they avoid this initial step. Today’s Uncertainty Wednesday post is my first cut at presenting the framework, so YMMV. I have found on other difficult topics, such as those covered in my book, it has taken me years of writing and thinking to achieve even moderate clarity. With that caveat in place, here we go. The framewor...