I have a bit of an obsession with how much probability figures into our lives and how poorly we tend to understand it. Case-in-point is this column in yesterday’s WSJ titled “Swine-Flu Hysteria” in which the author shows a deep and dangerous confusion about outcomes versus probabilities. He is essentially making an argument that runs as follows: the last few times people warned of pandemics (e.g. SARS, mad cow disease) nothing much happened so we should stop worrying about pandemics. I am adm...

I have a bit of an obsession with how much probability figures into our lives and how poorly we tend to understand it. Case-in-point is this column in yesterday’s WSJ titled “Swine-Flu Hysteria” in which the author shows a deep and dangerous confusion about outcomes versus probabilities. He is essentially making an argument that runs as follows: the last few times people warned of pandemics (e.g. SARS, mad cow disease) nothing much happened so we should stop worrying about pandemics. I am adm...