Continuations

A few week backs I wrote a series of blog posts about the risks from progress in Artificial Intelligence (AI). I specifically addressed that I believe that we are facing not just structural risks, such as algorithmic bias, but also existential ones. There are three dilemmas in pushing the existential risk point at this moment. First, there is the potential for a “boy who cried wolf” effect. The more we push right now, if (hopefully) nothing terrible happens, then the harder existential risk f...

It was upsetting to see Notre Dame burn on Monday, as the building is a beloved landmark to the many millions who have visited Paris and enjoyed a stroll near its majestic presence. In addition it is also a major symbol for many French and an ongoing place of religious worship. It now appears that reconstruction is not only possible but will also be well funded (prompting some interesting debates about fairness). In today’s Uncertainty Wednesday, I want to focus on an important lesson from th...

After an excursion for the last few Uncertainty Wednesdays into the topic of intelligence, I want to return to how to think about risk. In a post about a decade ago I wrote that it is possible for a startup to be too innovative by trying too many new things at one. Here is the key line from that post:If you innovate along too many dimensions at once you are multiplying risk (as startup risk is multiplicative, not additive). So what does it mean for startup risk to be multiplicative and not ad...

In investing there is uncertainty about returns. Some investments do well, others do poorly. But that is not the only risk that investors are concerned about when they are investing professionally on behalf of others. There is also the issue of perception: it is one thing not to make money in a sector, it is another not to make money in that sector when everyone else appears to be making money in it. Similarly, it is one thing to lose money on a trade, it is another to lose money on a trade t...

Wishing everyone a belated Thanksgiving. If you have some time today or over the weekend, I recommend watching this video of VP Mike Pence talking about the administration’s approach to China Then follow it by watching this video by Hank Paulson who proposes a different approach but seem clearly pessimistic about where this is headed. The deterioration of US-China relations is a massive tail risk. The recent sell-off in the stock market may be a partial reflection of that but doesn’t even beg...

On the flight back from Austin yesterday I started writing a longish post about SXSW. But as the news kept pouring in about the escalation of the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear power plant I found myself less and less able to concentrate on what appeared increasingly trivial by comparison. I may still post about SXSW eventually, but for now here are some thoughts about Japan. All of what is happening there underlines one of my deepest fears: as a species we are woefully unprepared for events...

I have been thinking a bit about the pros and cons of grinding it out versus transforming a company. By grinding it out I mean pursuing a path on which you are making progress but very slowly. So I am not talking about situations in which a company has not figured out at all what they are doing or is completely failing, but rather a situation in which every bit of growth takes a huge amount of effort. By transforming I mean making a big shift in strategy with the goal of finding a business th...

The startups that we invest in at Union Square Ventures are based on delivering an innovative product or service (at least we like to think so). There are also examples of startups that deliver an existing product or service using an innovative organizational design, such as a virtual law firm. Once in a while I run across a company that wants to do both, i.e. deliver an innovative service and at the same time do so with an innovative organizational design. I believe that’s an example of too ...

Later today I will be meeting with the students in Gary Chou’s Entrepreneurial Design SVA class (which Gary and Christina started together last year). We will talk about what’s happening in the labor market broadly and why that puts a premium on being a (micro) entrepreneur. As part of the preparation, I watched and read the materials that Gary had assigned for the class which included Max Levchin’s keynote from DLD. Max is super smart and working on some fascinating ideas around making more ...

At USV we look for businesses that have network effects and use the internet to do things that simply weren’t possible before. We are particularly thrilled when we can find opportunities that also have the potential of having a positive impact on society. This is why I am excited about what the team at amee in the UK has come up with over the last year: a networked approach to environmental and financial risk (amee is a USV portfolio company). Amee now publishes an amee environmental score fo...