Last Uncertainty Wednesday I introduced how think about weather using the concepts we have developed in this series. We saw that our improved data collection and ability to process more complicated weather models has given us significantly improved predictions. We also learned that because of the chaotic nature of weather, despite our massive progress on short term forecasts we still do quite poorly for forecasts that go out further than a week. Now a key question that we asked throughout thi...

So far in Uncertainty Wednesday we have mostly built up concepts and ideas, with only one extended example. Given the two massive hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the weather received a lot of attention, including the question to what extent the occurrence and/or severity of these storms lets us draw any conclusions about climate change. For that reason we will spend the next few Uncertainty Wednesdays looking at the weather using the ideas and concepts from the series. First, let’s put weather in...