This should come as no surprise - Microsoft is apparently launching a ‘cash back’ program for searchers who go on to buy products. I won’t try to speculate as to whether this will be successful in stopping or even reversing Microsoft’s slide in search share (I am sure there are already plenty of opinions about that and in any case we will find out what happens). But it does strengthen my conviction that it’s far from game over in search. The current google economics are simply too good. And unlike Microsoft’s past monopoly rents there is no physical distribution hurdle involved. Now there may never be a full frontal assault that succeeds, but there will be constant pressure around the edges because the cost of trying something else, say an indeed search for jobs, is so low. If you like the experience you will come back. Given the economics, even if it takes a long time and even if someone succeeds only in one category they will be able to build a sizable and highly profitable business. For incumbents this hyper competitive nature of the Internet is a drag but it sure keeps things interesting for entrepreneurs and us VCs.
