One of the many good things about blogging is that one can go back in time and look at one’s own thinking in a more objective way. Without putting it in writing it is all too easy to pretend, as history unfolds, that one had a great understanding way back. Our minds a terrific at rewriting our own thoughts – this tends to come out strongest when we talk about our career paths.
One example where I am reasonably happy with my own analysis is acquisition of Motorola Mobility by Google. I wrote that:
Apple is vertically integrated and Microsoft controls Nokia (without having had to buy it). Between that and having filed or acquired a lot of patents, these two pose formidable threats to Android. Buying Motorola lets Google fight both of these threats in one go.
and predicted that
… Google will only retain parts of Motorola - the patents and the hardware design capabilities, but close down or sell off much if not all actual manufacturing and handset distribution
Yesterday, Google announced the sale of Motorola Mobility to Lenovo. They retained the patent portfolio. I don’t know if they also retained any hardware design capabilities but they just acquired more of those with Nest.
Overall this re-enforces my view that Google very smartly understands that software is eating the world and is not pursuing the same deep vertical integration strategy as Apple. Recent purchases of robotics companies do not contradict this view as that hardware in that space is far behind on the commoditization curve.
PS I am sure that I have made quite a few predictions on Continuations that went the other way (and by all means please point this out to me). I am not focused necessarily on the outcome itself but more on the thinking about the event.
