I wrote previously about the threat of a Trump dictatorship. That was in 2020 which seems like a long time ago. After I wrote that post we got close to disaster when Trump attempted in various ways to stay in power despite the election results.

We are now in the second Trump term and the situation is considerably worse. Back then I wrote that

“... I deem it unlikely that Trump has a masterplan for becoming a dictator. Then again he probably didn’t have a masterplan for becoming president but he pulled it off nonetheless …”

I believe that still holds and yet here we are stumbling our way towards a dictatorship. Trump is a great improviser and his instincts have always been towards power.

His potent combination of bullying and corruption have made important societal groups fall in line. The US version of “Gleichschaltung” is more discombobulated than its inspiration but still the largest companies and their leadership have lined up to support the Trump administration. Big law firms have settled with him and now need to provide the administration with pro bono work. Universities, with few exceptions, have all but stopped criticizing the administration.

So what is the path from here to dictatorship? ICE plays a central role. Not only does it have a massive budget, but it is run and staffed by Trump loyalists or those whose loyalty has been purchased: in an otherwise tough job market ICE is adding nearly 20,000 new agents. There is widespread popular support for arresting and deporting illegal aliens with a record of major crimes, especially violent ones. But that hasn’t been the modus operandi of ICE.

Instead ICE appears to be going out of its way to generate active resistance. When you lose Joe Rogan and public support plummets to 34% on an issue where one could have 60%+ support, something is going majorly wrong. But if you look at it as an intentional strategy, then it is working as designed: which is to produce the kind of opposition that allows you to ratchet up your power grab. This of course was also a crucial ingredient to the rise of the Nazis. They intentionally fomented conflict with Communists and then used that very conflict to seize more power. In other words: this is a well established playbook. Even a staunch Trump supporter has identified this historic parallel. 

With ICE providing the pretext for a dictatorial power grab, what is the most important remaining part of society that needs to fall in line? Yes, it’s the US military. Appointing a pliable SecDef was the first step. Purges of generals and JAGs were the second. The third and final step is to make the military complicit. Operations like the ones against Venezuelan boats (and threatened land operations) are the perfect use case for this. You are slowly bringing the military into illegal territory all the while having a wonderful pretext. And if that is allowed to stand then it sends a clear message to the rank and file that anything goes.

So it was good to see six politicians record a video reminding members of the US military that they can disobey unlawful orders. There is unfortunately one thing deeply wrong with the video: all the politicians are Democrats with not a single Republican. Now in fairness Republicans probably weren’t asked to join but this should have been a bipartisan message.

President Trump went into overdrive after seeing it, labeling the statement seditious and calling for the arrest and trial of those who had made it. He also “retruthed” several other posts, including a now deleted one that read “HANG THEM GEORGE WASHINGTON WOULD !!”

Now why would the video elicit such a strong reaction? Is the video really a threat to United States military readiness? What exactly is the legitimate scenario that someone has in mind where soldiers would refuse an order because they had seen this video? Yeah no. This is a case of the Lady doth protest too much. You would only really go on overdrive if you in fact had upcoming unlawful orders in mind.

It is also worth noting that there is a long and sordid history in the United States of using the accusation of sedition to squelch legitimate criticism. The most relevant episode was the passing of the Sedition Act under John Adams. This was directly aimed at Thomas Jefferson and the Democratic Republicans. But as it turns out, Mark Kelly is not intimidated and gave a fiery speech instead of backing down.

Kelly and the others not bending to pressure seems to be helping more people find their spine. Rand Paul is speaking up against further escalation with Venezuela and several Republicans have called for an investigation into the second strike against crew members that had survived an initial attack on a Venezuelan boat.

If ever there was a moment to stop our stumbling into dictatorship this is it. Trump cannot be allowed to drag the military into an unlawful conflict with Venezuela. This attempt to compromise the US armed forces must be opposed.

I wrote previously about the threat of a Trump dictatorship. That was in 2020 which seems like a long time ago. After I wrote that post we got close to disaster when Trump attempted in various ways to stay in power despite the election results.

We are now in the second Trump term and the situation is considerably worse. Back then I wrote that

“... I deem it unlikely that Trump has a masterplan for becoming a dictator. Then again he probably didn’t have a masterplan for becoming president but he pulled it off nonetheless …”

I believe that still holds and yet here we are stumbling our way towards a dictatorship. Trump is a great improviser and his instincts have always been towards power.

His potent combination of bullying and corruption have made important societal groups fall in line. The US version of “Gleichschaltung” is more discombobulated than its inspiration but still the largest companies and their leadership have lined up to support the Trump administration. Big law firms have settled with him and now need to provide the administration with pro bono work. Universities, with few exceptions, have all but stopped criticizing the administration.

So what is the path from here to dictatorship? ICE plays a central role. Not only does it have a massive budget, but it is run and staffed by Trump loyalists or those whose loyalty has been purchased: in an otherwise tough job market ICE is adding nearly 20,000 new agents. There is widespread popular support for arresting and deporting illegal aliens with a record of major crimes, especially violent ones. But that hasn’t been the modus operandi of ICE.

Instead ICE appears to be going out of its way to generate active resistance. When you lose Joe Rogan and public support plummets to 34% on an issue where one could have 60%+ support, something is going majorly wrong. But if you look at it as an intentional strategy, then it is working as designed: which is to produce the kind of opposition that allows you to ratchet up your power grab. This of course was also a crucial ingredient to the rise of the Nazis. They intentionally fomented conflict with Communists and then used that very conflict to seize more power. In other words: this is a well established playbook. Even a staunch Trump supporter has identified this historic parallel. 

With ICE providing the pretext for a dictatorial power grab, what is the most important remaining part of society that needs to fall in line? Yes, it’s the US military. Appointing a pliable SecDef was the first step. Purges of generals and JAGs were the second. The third and final step is to make the military complicit. Operations like the ones against Venezuelan boats (and threatened land operations) are the perfect use case for this. You are slowly bringing the military into illegal territory all the while having a wonderful pretext. And if that is allowed to stand then it sends a clear message to the rank and file that anything goes.

So it was good to see six politicians record a video reminding members of the US military that they can disobey unlawful orders. There is unfortunately one thing deeply wrong with the video: all the politicians are Democrats with not a single Republican. Now in fairness Republicans probably weren’t asked to join but this should have been a bipartisan message.

President Trump went into overdrive after seeing it, labeling the statement seditious and calling for the arrest and trial of those who had made it. He also “retruthed” several other posts, including a now deleted one that read “HANG THEM GEORGE WASHINGTON WOULD !!”

Now why would the video elicit such a strong reaction? Is the video really a threat to United States military readiness? What exactly is the legitimate scenario that someone has in mind where soldiers would refuse an order because they had seen this video? Yeah no. This is a case of the Lady doth protest too much. You would only really go on overdrive if you in fact had upcoming unlawful orders in mind.

It is also worth noting that there is a long and sordid history in the United States of using the accusation of sedition to squelch legitimate criticism. The most relevant episode was the passing of the Sedition Act under John Adams. This was directly aimed at Thomas Jefferson and the Democratic Republicans. But as it turns out, Mark Kelly is not intimidated and gave a fiery speech instead of backing down.

Kelly and the others not bending to pressure seems to be helping more people find their spine. Rand Paul is speaking up against further escalation with Venezuela and several Republicans have called for an investigation into the second strike against crew members that had survived an initial attack on a Venezuelan boat.

If ever there was a moment to stop our stumbling into dictatorship this is it. Trump cannot be allowed to drag the military into an unlawful conflict with Venezuela. This attempt to compromise the US armed forces must be opposed.