A little while ago during Web 2.0 in New York, I expressed my sense of deja vu about being at a large Internet conference while the markets were imploding. If anything, this sense has deepened over the last couple of weeks. Not so much because there has been more volatility in the markets than ever before, but because there is such a wide range of attitudes among startups about the depth of this crisis and what it means for them. During the dotcom collapse there was a surprising number of entrepreneurs that were simply in denial. Now again I am finding myself in conversations with people who want to sign a long term lease, or postpone launching their product, or delay a fundraising effort, etc as if nothing had changed in the last three months. Just yesterday, I had a conversation with a team that is running out of money in April of 09 but their plan is to launch their product only in March of 09 and in the meantime optimize the user experience. Come again? Now this is an extreme example, but too many folks I talk to - including some in our own portfolio - seem insufficiently worried. This is likely a reflection of the optimistic nature of entrepreneurs. And the optimism of entrepreneurs is one of the reasons why I love what I do so much. But there is a thin line that separates healthy optimism from deadly overconfidence - the kind that kills climbers, pilots and companies. Until we know how bad this is going to get it is better to err on the side of thinking this will be a 100 year storm. That means preserving as much cash as possible. Drawing down venture debt lines before they disappear. Using short term sub leases. Letting underperformers go now. The list of things that can be done to prepare goes on. But prepare you must.
