I wrote a post last week that incensed some people who took issue both with my use of the term fascism and with the apparent focus on the deployment of DHS agents in Portland. Based on the comments here is a new post.

I believe there is a clear and present danger of Trump attempting to become a dictator this fall. I am putting this at less than 10% probability but significantly above 0%. Enough so that I believe now is the time to push back hard against this possibility and not after it has happened.

For reference, I had a hard time in 2016 convincing people – including people I knew on the Hilary Clinton campaign – that Trump had a good chance of winning. It is exactly because people simply couldn’t imagine it happening that they made a lot of bad choices, such as not campaigning in some states. Similarly, if you cannot imagine the possibility of a Trump dictatorship you will not take steps to prevent it.

Let me start by saying that I deem it unlikely that Trump has a masterplan for becoming a dictator. Then again he probably didn’t have a masterplan for becoming president but he pulled it off nonetheless and being a reality show host worked well in that regard (whether planned or not), as did his embrace of Twitter and his ability to inoculate himself against rational criticism. Time and again Trump has shown the ability to seize opportunities that present themselves and part of the opportunity has always been that opponents underestimate what he is capable of.

So what about dictatorship? Well for starters it is clear that Trump publicly admires dictators and that he revels in power. This is obviously not new but something he has announced for a long time in many different forms, including the design of his homes in dictator style.

What has Trump done in office that substantiates any risk? Here are some of the actions that I am aware of that are part of an overall pattern that demonstrates the potential of a flip to dictatorship. These are all actions that have historic precedent as part of dictatorial power grabs:

• Trump has declared the press an “enemy of the people” and a source of “fake news”
  
  

• Trump has held continued rallies throughout his presidency
  
  

• Trump has agencies run by “actings” who serve at his digression and have not gone through a congressional vetting process which gives him direct power
  
  

• Trump has undermined the independence and effectiveness of the judiciary through his appointments of unqualified judges, verbal attacks on judges that have ruled against him, and by commuting the sentence of someone convicted of obstructing Congress
  
  

• Trump is tweeting frequently about how the election is being rigged as a way of putting the legitimacy of the results in question
  
  

• Trump has been torpedoing the United States Postal Service as a way of interfering with mail-in ballots
  
  

• Trump is moving federal agents into predominantly Democratic cities, nominally under a “law and order” agenda
  
  

• Trump has pardoned soldiers implicated in war crimes and has publicly belittle military leadership. [*]
  
  

• Trump has interfered with the functioning of the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by not nominating commissioners depriving the FEC repeatedly of a quorum. [*]

I am sure there are other actions that fit the pattern that I am missing and I would love for people to contribute more examples (update: the ones marked with * above are additions based on comments).

My longstanding opposition to Trump, going back to his 2016 campaign, rests on my view that he represents a meaningful threat to the workings of democracy and the principles of critical inquiry and science, which together have accounted for much of the progress that we have achieved.

To be clear, as this was also brought up in comments, I do believe that we require dramatic changes and that recent Presidents, including Obama, were incrementalists which has been completely inadequate fo the challenges we are facing (this is the subject of my book World After Capital). And yes Hilary Clinton would have been an incrementalist as well.

Finally, let me also add, lest someone bring it up as a distraction from the risk discussed here, that I am against violence, including damage to buildings — both because I believe it to be wrong, but also because I think it is ineffective and worse than that plays into the hands of someone who is a potential dictator as it provides an excuse.

PS For one commenter in particular, I will write a post about Marxism also. I do believe its resurgence is deeply problematic but doesn’t pose the same kind of clear and present danger (I will explain both of these in the post).

I wrote a post last week that incensed some people who took issue both with my use of the term fascism and with the apparent focus on the deployment of DHS agents in Portland. Based on the comments here is a new post.

I believe there is a clear and present danger of Trump attempting to become a dictator this fall. I am putting this at less than 10% probability but significantly above 0%. Enough so that I believe now is the time to push back hard against this possibility and not after it has happened.

For reference, I had a hard time in 2016 convincing people – including people I knew on the Hilary Clinton campaign – that Trump had a good chance of winning. It is exactly because people simply couldn’t imagine it happening that they made a lot of bad choices, such as not campaigning in some states. Similarly, if you cannot imagine the possibility of a Trump dictatorship you will not take steps to prevent it.

Let me start by saying that I deem it unlikely that Trump has a masterplan for becoming a dictator. Then again he probably didn’t have a masterplan for becoming president but he pulled it off nonetheless and being a reality show host worked well in that regard (whether planned or not), as did his embrace of Twitter and his ability to inoculate himself against rational criticism. Time and again Trump has shown the ability to seize opportunities that present themselves and part of the opportunity has always been that opponents underestimate what he is capable of.

So what about dictatorship? Well for starters it is clear that Trump publicly admires dictators and that he revels in power. This is obviously not new but something he has announced for a long time in many different forms, including the design of his homes in dictator style.

What has Trump done in office that substantiates any risk? Here are some of the actions that I am aware of that are part of an overall pattern that demonstrates the potential of a flip to dictatorship. These are all actions that have historic precedent as part of dictatorial power grabs:

• Trump has declared the press an “enemy of the people” and a source of “fake news”
  
  

• Trump has held continued rallies throughout his presidency
  
  

• Trump has agencies run by “actings” who serve at his digression and have not gone through a congressional vetting process which gives him direct power
  
  

• Trump has undermined the independence and effectiveness of the judiciary through his appointments of unqualified judges, verbal attacks on judges that have ruled against him, and by commuting the sentence of someone convicted of obstructing Congress
  
  

• Trump is tweeting frequently about how the election is being rigged as a way of putting the legitimacy of the results in question
  
  

• Trump has been torpedoing the United States Postal Service as a way of interfering with mail-in ballots
  
  

• Trump is moving federal agents into predominantly Democratic cities, nominally under a “law and order” agenda
  
  

• Trump has pardoned soldiers implicated in war crimes and has publicly belittle military leadership. [*]
  
  

• Trump has interfered with the functioning of the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by not nominating commissioners depriving the FEC repeatedly of a quorum. [*]

I am sure there are other actions that fit the pattern that I am missing and I would love for people to contribute more examples (update: the ones marked with * above are additions based on comments).

My longstanding opposition to Trump, going back to his 2016 campaign, rests on my view that he represents a meaningful threat to the workings of democracy and the principles of critical inquiry and science, which together have accounted for much of the progress that we have achieved.

To be clear, as this was also brought up in comments, I do believe that we require dramatic changes and that recent Presidents, including Obama, were incrementalists which has been completely inadequate fo the challenges we are facing (this is the subject of my book World After Capital). And yes Hilary Clinton would have been an incrementalist as well.

Finally, let me also add, lest someone bring it up as a distraction from the risk discussed here, that I am against violence, including damage to buildings — both because I believe it to be wrong, but also because I think it is ineffective and worse than that plays into the hands of someone who is a potential dictator as it provides an excuse.

PS For one commenter in particular, I will write a post about Marxism also. I do believe its resurgence is deeply problematic but doesn’t pose the same kind of clear and present danger (I will explain both of these in the post).