I went to bed last night at a time when some of the early results started to indicate that Brexit might happen and woke up to that reality. Here are some thoughts that are kicking around my head:
1. The results are another example of how easy it is to underestimate the level of frustration that has accumulated in parts of the population. The better the system is working for you the easier it is to make this mistake. The US presidential election is another clear example.
2. The easiest and most dangerous of the populist moves is to blame foreigners for anything and everything that’s wrong. Not enough employment: foreigners. Too much crime: foreigners. The fact that we are allowing a repeat of this pattern after all the past hate and destruction it has brought with it is our biggest failing.
3. Encouragingly younger voters, at least in the UK, were less susceptible to this rhetoric as the following chart shows:
4. It might be a good moment to acknowledge that the EU has a ton of economic problems. It was a mistake in the Remain camp to downplay those. Similarly it will be a mistake to downplay the economic problems we are having in the US.
What does it all mean? For one I suspect that financial markets may overreact. More importantly there are a ton of lessons here for upcoming presidential election in the US. They key one is that all of us who do not want a President Trump have to redouble our efforts at turning out Democratic voters for Hillary. This can’t be a last minute appeal either, which clearly failed in the case of Brexit.
