So promptly after I wrote about having "Renewed Energy" I entered another 7 week writing gap. There are of course many reasons, with some better than others. On the fun side there was a brief sailing adventure on Frolic, heading from the Canaries to Cabo Verde and exploring the volcanic islands on both ends with Gigi (Frolic is now en route to the Carribean). At work I have been particularly busy with several financings happening at the same time along with working on a new investment. I have been sleeping longer thanks to listening to a sleep expert along with data from my Oura ring (this has definitely interfered with my prior habit of writing in the mornings).

But the real reason for writing less has been that I am experiencing a threshold crisis. I have been setting the bar too high which has made it impossible to get anything out. This has left me sitting on several draft blog posts, which is highly unusual for me. I am not exactly sure what to do about this but stating my dilemma clearly and publicly is a start. I need to force myself to write more loosely about what's careening around my mind in an attempt to dislodge the jam.

A lot of my brain is taken up with trying to understand where AI is headed and how to invest accordingly. In 2024 and for much of 2025 the "scale at any cost" approach was attracting all the dollars. And while scaling is still making progress there are now a bunch of scaled players but major issues such models going from incredibly smart to stupid in a heartbeat are unresolved. It seem increasingly clear that we need at least one and possibly several new tricks (something I had written about on the USV blog as far back as May 2024).

Understanding the AI trajectory is deeply intertwined with the profound transition between ages that we are finding ourselves in. One trend that I have underestimated is the decline in birth rates. I continue to believe that there are some built in corrective mechanisms but the scale of the trend warrants more attention. Stefano from Unruly Capital has an interesting blog post about population decline as a investment thesis.

Finally the intersection of physics and philosophy that I have gotten to in my Philosophy Monday series is genuinely difficult territory. I am particularly obsessed at the moment with what I consider to be the central role of irreversibility for informing morality. Much of morality appears to be about preventing absorbing states for individuals and for societies.

For now I just trying to get back in the habit of writing by being more willing to think out loud with potentially half baked ideas. Let's see how it goes.

So promptly after I wrote about having "Renewed Energy" I entered another 7 week writing gap. There are of course many reasons, with some better than others. On the fun side there was a brief sailing adventure on Frolic, heading from the Canaries to Cabo Verde and exploring the volcanic islands on both ends with Gigi (Frolic is now en route to the Carribean). At work I have been particularly busy with several financings happening at the same time along with working on a new investment. I have been sleeping longer thanks to listening to a sleep expert along with data from my Oura ring (this has definitely interfered with my prior habit of writing in the mornings).

But the real reason for writing less has been that I am experiencing a threshold crisis. I have been setting the bar too high which has made it impossible to get anything out. This has left me sitting on several draft blog posts, which is highly unusual for me. I am not exactly sure what to do about this but stating my dilemma clearly and publicly is a start. I need to force myself to write more loosely about what's careening around my mind in an attempt to dislodge the jam.

A lot of my brain is taken up with trying to understand where AI is headed and how to invest accordingly. In 2024 and for much of 2025 the "scale at any cost" approach was attracting all the dollars. And while scaling is still making progress there are now a bunch of scaled players but major issues such models going from incredibly smart to stupid in a heartbeat are unresolved. It seem increasingly clear that we need at least one and possibly several new tricks (something I had written about on the USV blog as far back as May 2024).

Understanding the AI trajectory is deeply intertwined with the profound transition between ages that we are finding ourselves in. One trend that I have underestimated is the decline in birth rates. I continue to believe that there are some built in corrective mechanisms but the scale of the trend warrants more attention. Stefano from Unruly Capital has an interesting blog post about population decline as a investment thesis.

Finally the intersection of physics and philosophy that I have gotten to in my Philosophy Monday series is genuinely difficult territory. I am particularly obsessed at the moment with what I consider to be the central role of irreversibility for informing morality. Much of morality appears to be about preventing absorbing states for individuals and for societies.

For now I just trying to get back in the habit of writing by being more willing to think out loud with potentially half baked ideas. Let's see how it goes.