This morning I am talking to a group of consumer banking folks who have come together to talk about all things digital. The primary focus for them during the day will be on such things as “omni channel” marketing (which sounds a bit ominous) but my role will be to draw a broader picture of the future. I asked yesterday on Twitter what I should talk about and got lots of terrific replies – thanks! Here is how I am planning to frame up my talk. Banking today still largely seems to be in the “re...

This morning I am talking to a group of consumer banking folks who have come together to talk about all things digital. The primary focus for them during the day will be on such things as “omni channel” marketing (which sounds a bit ominous) but my role will be to draw a broader picture of the future. I asked yesterday on Twitter what I should talk about and got lots of terrific replies – thanks! Here is how I am planning to frame up my talk. Banking today still largely seems to be in the “re...

In part 3 of this series I argued that the changes in employment are the main driver behind the massive rise in inequality in the US. That inevitably brings out a number of responses for how to address inequality, none of which I believe will actually work. At the end of that post I already showed a graph that debunks the notion that this can be solved through better education (at least of the traditional variety). Similarly we now have calls for better labor organizing and higher minimum wag...

In part 3 of this series I argued that the changes in employment are the main driver behind the massive rise in inequality in the US. That inevitably brings out a number of responses for how to address inequality, none of which I believe will actually work. At the end of that post I already showed a graph that debunks the notion that this can be solved through better education (at least of the traditional variety). Similarly we now have calls for better labor organizing and higher minimum wag...

This is the third post in my mini series on employment. Part 1 illustrated how agriculture and manufacturing, the two historically large areas of employment, have collapsed over time. Part 2 drilled into the services sector which today accounts for the bulk of employment to show that many categories there have stopped to grow and are under pressure from the twin forces of automation and globalization. Why does all of this matter? My overriding argument is that we have not found a new source o...

This is the third post in my mini series on employment. Part 1 illustrated how agriculture and manufacturing, the two historically large areas of employment, have collapsed over time. Part 2 drilled into the services sector which today accounts for the bulk of employment to show that many categories there have stopped to grow and are under pressure from the twin forces of automation and globalization. Why does all of this matter? My overriding argument is that we have not found a new source o...

Last weekend I wrote a post about what is happening with employment. The gist was that employment in the US in agriculture and manufacturing has collapsed as a percentage of total employment and declined even in absolute terms mostly as a result of increased productivity and globalization. All employment growth has been concentrated in services. Today I want to take a deeper dive on services, but before doing so I should point out that I am optimistic about technology in the long run. My poin...

Last weekend I wrote a post about what is happening with employment. The gist was that employment in the US in agriculture and manufacturing has collapsed as a percentage of total employment and declined even in absolute terms mostly as a result of increased productivity and globalization. All employment growth has been concentrated in services. Today I want to take a deeper dive on services, but before doing so I should point out that I am optimistic about technology in the long run. My poin...

The European Union launched an Antitrust Complaint against Google over Android. It is a shame that we keep coming back to using antitrust legislation to try to deal with issues of concentration and market power in information industries. We need alternative regulatory tools that are more in line with how computation works and why the properties of information tend to lead to concentration. We want networks and network effects to exist because of their positive externalities. Imagine as a coun...

The European Union launched an Antitrust Complaint against Google over Android. It is a shame that we keep coming back to using antitrust legislation to try to deal with issues of concentration and market power in information industries. We need alternative regulatory tools that are more in line with how computation works and why the properties of information tend to lead to concentration. We want networks and network effects to exist because of their positive externalities. Imagine as a coun...

I am bummed to be missing Twilio’s annual Signal Conference this year. Not just because Jeff does a fantastic keynote, but because Twilio always announces a truckload of amazing new goodness. Here are just two great things from yesterday: first, a marketplace for add-ons which lets third parties connect with Twilio’s 1 million developers (a milestone also announced yesterday) and second, programmable Twilio-powered SIM cards for IoT applications (in conjunction with T-Mobile). While the annou...

I am bummed to be missing Twilio’s annual Signal Conference this year. Not just because Jeff does a fantastic keynote, but because Twilio always announces a truckload of amazing new goodness. Here are just two great things from yesterday: first, a marketplace for add-ons which lets third parties connect with Twilio’s 1 million developers (a milestone also announced yesterday) and second, programmable Twilio-powered SIM cards for IoT applications (in conjunction with T-Mobile). While the annou...

We all know that valuations in the private markets are high at the moment and generally ahead of public market valuations. There are multiple reasons for this including principal agent issues in venture capital and most importantly the potential for exponentially increasing returns in network effects businesses. The one I want to focus on today though is a potentially wrong assumption about long run profitability. Craigslist has not invested in a native mobile experience and as a result there...

We all know that valuations in the private markets are high at the moment and generally ahead of public market valuations. There are multiple reasons for this including principal agent issues in venture capital and most importantly the potential for exponentially increasing returns in network effects businesses. The one I want to focus on today though is a potentially wrong assumption about long run profitability. Craigslist has not invested in a native mobile experience and as a result there...

The shift to mobile computing is fully underway. Over time everyone in the world will have a smartphone and data speeds will go up (and hopefully prices for data plans will come down). So the race is on to find the natively mobile versions of many (all?) existing businesses. There is, however, a major hurdle to that innovation here in the US and many other parts of the world: the control of Apple and Google over their respective app stores. Many people have pointed to the amazing commerce int...

The shift to mobile computing is fully underway. Over time everyone in the world will have a smartphone and data speeds will go up (and hopefully prices for data plans will come down). So the race is on to find the natively mobile versions of many (all?) existing businesses. There is, however, a major hurdle to that innovation here in the US and many other parts of the world: the control of Apple and Google over their respective app stores. Many people have pointed to the amazing commerce int...

This will be the last Homeschool Wednesday post for quite some time. Not just because we will be going away on a trip to Africa but when we come back I will switch Continuations around a bit. I will use it (almost) exclusively to expand the ideas from my “Are We The Horse?” talk. Now I can make that change without asking anyone for permission because I am my own publisher. That is an example of “permission-less innovation” and is one of the key messages we are trying to convey to our children...

This will be the last Homeschool Wednesday post for quite some time. Not just because we will be going away on a trip to Africa but when we come back I will switch Continuations around a bit. I will use it (almost) exclusively to expand the ideas from my “Are We The Horse?” talk. Now I can make that change without asking anyone for permission because I am my own publisher. That is an example of “permission-less innovation” and is one of the key messages we are trying to convey to our children...

Chris Dixon recently wrote a post about the decline of the mobile web and the shift to apps and how that is hurting innovation. Fred expanded on that theme in his post on the mobile downturn. So it is worth thinking about what we need to get to a model of permissionless innovation in mobile. Here are some changes that might make senseAn unencumbered open source mobile operating system (Android is not that due to the control exercised by Google) Ability to side load apps / have competing app m...

Chris Dixon recently wrote a post about the decline of the mobile web and the shift to apps and how that is hurting innovation. Fred expanded on that theme in his post on the mobile downturn. So it is worth thinking about what we need to get to a model of permissionless innovation in mobile. Here are some changes that might make senseAn unencumbered open source mobile operating system (Android is not that due to the control exercised by Google) Ability to side load apps / have competing app m...