What does it mean to trust someone? Usually, that person (or company, or technology) can take actions that share a bunch of characteristics: the action has a material impact on us, we cannot directly observe the action or judge its consequences relative to alternatives at least until later, and we have an expectation that the other will act in a way that is primarily to our benefit as opposed to their own. One way to tell that trust was involved in a relationship is when we discover that the ...

What does it mean to trust someone? Usually, that person (or company, or technology) can take actions that share a bunch of characteristics: the action has a material impact on us, we cannot directly observe the action or judge its consequences relative to alternatives at least until later, and we have an expectation that the other will act in a way that is primarily to our benefit as opposed to their own. One way to tell that trust was involved in a relationship is when we discover that the ...

It is easy to feel pessimistic at the end of 2018. CO2 emissions are still climbing rapidly and reached an all time high in 2018, with severe weather events accelerating globally. Facebook and Twitter continue to be used for manipulation and their approaches to moderation are just as problematic. And the political response to all of this is largely one of chaos dominated by strongmen politicians, including the recent election of Bolsonaro in Brazil. So how can one stay optimistic? One way is ...

It is easy to feel pessimistic at the end of 2018. CO2 emissions are still climbing rapidly and reached an all time high in 2018, with severe weather events accelerating globally. Facebook and Twitter continue to be used for manipulation and their approaches to moderation are just as problematic. And the political response to all of this is largely one of chaos dominated by strongmen politicians, including the recent election of Bolsonaro in Brazil. So how can one stay optimistic? One way is ...

NOTE: I will resume posting excerpts from World After Capital next week. A couple of weeks ago I first tweeted about what gives people reasons for optimism and then wrote a post. Both of these were preparations for giving the opening keynote for the 2019 DLD conference. I will eventually put the slides online but in the meantime, here is the video from the talk

NOTE: I will resume posting excerpts from World After Capital next week. A couple of weeks ago I first tweeted about what gives people reasons for optimism and then wrote a post. Both of these were preparations for giving the opening keynote for the 2019 DLD conference. I will eventually put the slides online but in the meantime, here is the video from the talk

NOTE: Today’s excerpt from World After Capital continues the topic of Informational Freedom, discussing overreach in the patent system and offering prizes as an alternative mechanism. This is timely as the patent office has unfortunately issued new rules that will make it easier to obtain software patents undoing the tightening from prior Supreme Court decisions. While copyright limits our ability to share knowledge, patents limit our ability to use knowledge to create something. Much like ha...

NOTE: Today’s excerpt from World After Capital continues the topic of Informational Freedom, discussing overreach in the patent system and offering prizes as an alternative mechanism. This is timely as the patent office has unfortunately issued new rules that will make it easier to obtain software patents undoing the tightening from prior Supreme Court decisions. While copyright limits our ability to share knowledge, patents limit our ability to use knowledge to create something. Much like ha...

In today’s edition of Uncertainty Wednesday, we will look at how uncertainty in markets is highly dynamic. Something can be a sure thing for a while but not forever. There is a – potentially apocryphal – story about Ron Conway’s first fund: every single investment was a write off except for Google, which resulted in a 7x return for the fund as whole. Thus is the power outsized returns in a world of network effects and winner-take-all (or most) markets. One winner more than offsets many losers...

In today’s edition of Uncertainty Wednesday, we will look at how uncertainty in markets is highly dynamic. Something can be a sure thing for a while but not forever. There is a – potentially apocryphal – story about Ron Conway’s first fund: every single investment was a write off except for Google, which resulted in a 7x return for the fund as whole. Thus is the power outsized returns in a world of network effects and winner-take-all (or most) markets. One winner more than offsets many losers...

Today’s Uncertainty Wednesday revisits a favorite topic of mine: correlation. I first wrote about the importance of thinking about correlation in modeling over 10 years ago, long before starting the Uncertainty Wednesday series (the reference to Excel is a giveaway). I then had a three part series about spurious correlation which you can find here: part 1, part 2 and part 3. Here is the key introductory paragraph:Well, as you have seen from the posts on sample mean and sample variance, whenev...

Today’s Uncertainty Wednesday revisits a favorite topic of mine: correlation. I first wrote about the importance of thinking about correlation in modeling over 10 years ago, long before starting the Uncertainty Wednesday series (the reference to Excel is a giveaway). I then had a three part series about spurious correlation which you can find here: part 1, part 2 and part 3. Here is the key introductory paragraph:Well, as you have seen from the posts on sample mean and sample variance, whenev...

I have written fairly extensively here on Continuations about climate change, including several times as part of Uncertainty Wednesday. I have also previously stated my support for geo-engineering research as far back as 2009 and again more recently in 2016. A common objection to geo-engineering is that the earth is a complex highly non-linear system. So the argument goes, anything we might do will likely be a cure that’s worse than the disease. There are two flaws with this argument. First, ...

I have written fairly extensively here on Continuations about climate change, including several times as part of Uncertainty Wednesday. I have also previously stated my support for geo-engineering research as far back as 2009 and again more recently in 2016. A common objection to geo-engineering is that the earth is a complex highly non-linear system. So the argument goes, anything we might do will likely be a cure that’s worse than the disease. There are two flaws with this argument. First, ...

NOTE: Excerpts from World After Capital will resume next Monday We just returned from a wonderful week skiing. One of our family traditions is to all work together completing a puzzle. It’s a fun activity that involves a surprising amount of teamwork, such as finding pieces that belong in a part of the puzzle someone else is working on and trading off working on different areas. We had always picked 1,000 piece puzzles. This time we wound up buying a 3,000 piece puzzle. After all, how much ha...

NOTE: Excerpts from World After Capital will resume next Monday We just returned from a wonderful week skiing. One of our family traditions is to all work together completing a puzzle. It’s a fun activity that involves a surprising amount of teamwork, such as finding pieces that belong in a part of the puzzle someone else is working on and trading off working on different areas. We had always picked 1,000 piece puzzles. This time we wound up buying a 3,000 piece puzzle. After all, how much ha...

Our twins are about to wrap up their first semester and one thing is clear: 30 years after I went, and 20 years after the web exploded, college has barely changed. Sure, students all have smartphones and laptops, but they also carry around big text and heavy textbooks, go to lectures with frontal presentation from professors and take exams in blue books. They go for four years with maybe a semester (or possibly even a year) abroad if they are lucky. They declare a major at some point and the ...

Our twins are about to wrap up their first semester and one thing is clear: 30 years after I went, and 20 years after the web exploded, college has barely changed. Sure, students all have smartphones and laptops, but they also carry around big text and heavy textbooks, go to lectures with frontal presentation from professors and take exams in blue books. They go for four years with maybe a semester (or possibly even a year) abroad if they are lucky. They declare a major at some point and the ...

NOTE: I have been posting excerpts from my book World After Capital. Currently we are on the Informational Freedom section and the last week’s post was on being represented by a bot. Today looks at the rolling back copyright. Limiting the Limits to Sharing and CreatingOnce we have fought back geographical and prioritization limits and have bots in place so that all users can meaningfully control their own interactions with the global knowledge network, we still come up against limits that res...

NOTE: I have been posting excerpts from my book World After Capital. Currently we are on the Informational Freedom section and the last week’s post was on being represented by a bot. Today looks at the rolling back copyright. Limiting the Limits to Sharing and CreatingOnce we have fought back geographical and prioritization limits and have bots in place so that all users can meaningfully control their own interactions with the global knowledge network, we still come up against limits that res...