The problem of finding an optimal structure for a token sale is quite difficult. For starters, the objectives between teams and investors are potentially different. Furthermore, these are not homogenous groups. Teams vary widely along at least two dimensions: intent (from get rich quick to change the world) and competency. Investors differ around dimensions such as risk tolerance and intended holding period. As if that were not complicated enough, there is also a question how a sale is suppos...

In an information sessions for Congress, Peter Van Valkenburgh used my favorite analogy comparing crypto tokens to tickets at a fair ground. And William Mougayar has a new post about tokens where he specifically refers to them as “privately issued currency.” No matter how you think about tokens, there is now a great interest in understanding why and how their prices are determined in the market. The trivial answer of course is: supply and demand. But what exactly is the supply? As it turns ou...

The problem of finding an optimal structure for a token sale is quite difficult. For starters, the objectives between teams and investors are potentially different. Furthermore, these are not homogenous groups. Teams vary widely along at least two dimensions: intent (from get rich quick to change the world) and competency. Investors differ around dimensions such as risk tolerance and intended holding period. As if that were not complicated enough, there is also a question how a sale is suppos...

In an information sessions for Congress, Peter Van Valkenburgh used my favorite analogy comparing crypto tokens to tickets at a fair ground. And William Mougayar has a new post about tokens where he specifically refers to them as “privately issued currency.” No matter how you think about tokens, there is now a great interest in understanding why and how their prices are determined in the market. The trivial answer of course is: supply and demand. But what exactly is the supply? As it turns ou...

I have for some time pointed out the negative impact on innovation of the appstore duopoly. Things are getting worse though. With the latest releases of iOS and Android the ability of third party developers to create great experiences are being further curtailed in the name of privacy and battery life. That might be OK if Apple and Google didn’t have their own apps that compete for usage such as maps or transportation, but they do. Apple and Google are using the same playbook that Microsoft a...

I have for some time pointed out the negative impact on innovation of the appstore duopoly. Things are getting worse though. With the latest releases of iOS and Android the ability of third party developers to create great experiences are being further curtailed in the name of privacy and battery life. That might be OK if Apple and Google didn’t have their own apps that compete for usage such as maps or transportation, but they do. Apple and Google are using the same playbook that Microsoft a...

I recently read “Seveneves” by Neal Stephenson and just last night finished “The Dark Forest” which is the second book in the “Three Body Problem” trilogy by Cixin Liu. What these books have in common is that they look at a threat to humanity’s existence and probe our responses to it. This literature is timely because we face such a threat in the form of climate change. The message from the books is clear: only scientific knowledge and staying rational can get humanity past a global threat. T...

I recently read “Seveneves” by Neal Stephenson and just last night finished “The Dark Forest” which is the second book in the “Three Body Problem” trilogy by Cixin Liu. What these books have in common is that they look at a threat to humanity’s existence and probe our responses to it. This literature is timely because we face such a threat in the form of climate change. The message from the books is clear: only scientific knowledge and staying rational can get humanity past a global threat. T...

Last week in Uncertainty Wednesday, I introduced Shannon entropy as a measure of uncertainty that is based solely on the structure of the probability distribution. As a quick reminder, the formula is H = - K ∑ pi log pi where ∑ is over the i = 1…n of the probability distribution Now you may notice a potential problem here if the distribution includes a probability p that approaches 0, because log p will go to infinity. If you know limits and remember L'Hôpital’s rule, you can convince yo...

Last week in Uncertainty Wednesday, I introduced Shannon entropy as a measure of uncertainty that is based solely on the structure of the probability distribution. As a quick reminder, the formula is H = - K ∑ pi log pi where ∑ is over the i = 1…n of the probability distribution Now you may notice a potential problem here if the distribution includes a probability p that approaches 0, because log p will go to infinity. If you know limits and remember L'Hôpital’s rule, you can convince yo...

Today in Uncertainty Wednesday I want to start on the idea that just the shape of the probability distribution alone contains some measure of uncertainty. Let’s think about the simplest case again with just two states A and B and P(A) = p1 with P(B) = p2 = 1- p1. I am using indices because we will shortly expand the number of states. If p1 = 1 there is no uncertainty at all because you are certain that the world is in state A. Same holds true for p1 = 0 except that it is now state B (because ...

Today in Uncertainty Wednesday I want to start on the idea that just the shape of the probability distribution alone contains some measure of uncertainty. Let’s think about the simplest case again with just two states A and B and P(A) = p1 with P(B) = p2 = 1- p1. I am using indices because we will shortly expand the number of states. If p1 = 1 there is no uncertainty at all because you are certain that the world is in state A. Same holds true for p1 = 0 except that it is now state B (because ...

In my book World After Capital, I have a chapter on Universal Basic Income, which I see as essential to getting from the Industrial Age into the Knowledge Age. Basic income gives people economic freedom, which is essential if we want them to freely allocate their attention. I am about to rewrite the part on how to finance a Basic Income. Much of the writing on that to date, including my own, has taken the approach of looking at existing budgets and figuring out how to rearrange them. That, ho...

In my book World After Capital, I have a chapter on Universal Basic Income, which I see as essential to getting from the Industrial Age into the Knowledge Age. Basic income gives people economic freedom, which is essential if we want them to freely allocate their attention. I am about to rewrite the part on how to finance a Basic Income. Much of the writing on that to date, including my own, has taken the approach of looking at existing budgets and figuring out how to rearrange them. That, ho...

I spent a bunch of time at Consensus and Token Summit this week. If it wasn’t clear before, we are headed into a crypto currency bubble. Now a bubble isn’t in and of itself a bad thing. In fact almost every wave of technology has brought with it a financial bubble phase (eg care for Railway Mania in Britain). During this phase a lot of financial capital flows into a sector which finances real innovation and accelerates the buildout of physical infrastructure. The same will be true for the cry...

I spent a bunch of time at Consensus and Token Summit this week. If it wasn’t clear before, we are headed into a crypto currency bubble. Now a bubble isn’t in and of itself a bad thing. In fact almost every wave of technology has brought with it a financial bubble phase (eg care for Railway Mania in Britain). During this phase a lot of financial capital flows into a sector which finances real innovation and accelerates the buildout of physical infrastructure. The same will be true for the cry...

So far in Uncertainty Wednesday we have limited ourselves to looking at examples with only two states of the world and two possible signal values. When I introduced this I explained that these combine to form four elementary events and we looked at the basic requirements for assigning probabilities to these and the axioms that probability should then follow. Now let’s forget for a moment about the origin of our elementary events and simply look at any set S = {A, B, C, D, E, F} where the memb...

So far in Uncertainty Wednesday we have limited ourselves to looking at examples with only two states of the world and two possible signal values. When I introduced this I explained that these combine to form four elementary events and we looked at the basic requirements for assigning probabilities to these and the axioms that probability should then follow. Now let’s forget for a moment about the origin of our elementary events and simply look at any set S = {A, B, C, D, E, F} where the memb...

This weekend brought us both a big New York Times piece titled “The Internet is Broken: @ev​ Is Trying to Salvage It” and a Guardian article about Facebook’s guidelines for content moderators. Both speak to the question of who controls content on the Internet and how that control impacts our attention. Ev makes the point that extremes attract more attention compared to a more moderate or balance view. Therefore advertising based systems, which require attention which they then partially resel...

This weekend brought us both a big New York Times piece titled “The Internet is Broken: @ev​ Is Trying to Salvage It” and a Guardian article about Facebook’s guidelines for content moderators. Both speak to the question of who controls content on the Internet and how that control impacts our attention. Ev makes the point that extremes attract more attention compared to a more moderate or balance view. Therefore advertising based systems, which require attention which they then partially resel...