I have been trying to put my finger on what exactly bothers me quite so much about Trump’s approach to politics. Yes, there are lots of individual elements that people have rightly criticized. But now I have figured out what unifies it all for me: Trump is pushing us collectively into thinking fast and abandoning knowledge. What do I mean by this? One of the books I highly recommend is “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman. In it Kahneman catalogs years of research into behavioral econ...

I have been trying to put my finger on what exactly bothers me quite so much about Trump’s approach to politics. Yes, there are lots of individual elements that people have rightly criticized. But now I have figured out what unifies it all for me: Trump is pushing us collectively into thinking fast and abandoning knowledge. What do I mean by this? One of the books I highly recommend is “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman. In it Kahneman catalogs years of research into behavioral econ...

So far in Uncertainty Wednesday, I have introduced a framework in which I attribute uncertainty to limits on observations and explanations of reality. That was followed by a series of posts detailing such limits on observations, including fundamental limits, resolution, measurement error, cost and impact. Then a brief explanation of explanations, followed by fundamental limits on explanations and incompleteness. Now here comes a big question. What about reality itself? Is it a source of uncer...

So far in Uncertainty Wednesday, I have introduced a framework in which I attribute uncertainty to limits on observations and explanations of reality. That was followed by a series of posts detailing such limits on observations, including fundamental limits, resolution, measurement error, cost and impact. Then a brief explanation of explanations, followed by fundamental limits on explanations and incompleteness. Now here comes a big question. What about reality itself? Is it a source of uncer...

I have lots of thoughts about the outcome of the US election but have been letting them ruminate to avoid contributing to the cacophony of hot takes. Here is a first bit that I feel strongly about as it ties into topics that I have covered repeatedly here on Continuations. I have been writing about the danger of the “filter bubble” on and off over the years and have called for an “opposing view” reader. I have also written about the danger of “information cascades.” This election has definite...

I have lots of thoughts about the outcome of the US election but have been letting them ruminate to avoid contributing to the cacophony of hot takes. Here is a first bit that I feel strongly about as it ties into topics that I have covered repeatedly here on Continuations. I have been writing about the danger of the “filter bubble” on and off over the years and have called for an “opposing view” reader. I have also written about the danger of “information cascades.” This election has definite...

I am writing this from Web Summit in Lisbon where I have just spent the morning meeting with some terrific startups. One question that was on a lot of people’s minds was what the election of Trump as the US President will mean. I think the right answer is: nobody knows and nobody will know for quite some time. The only thing that we can know right now is that the amount of perceived uncertainty has just shot up dramatically (*). And when that happens a lot of investors put their foot on the b...

I am writing this from Web Summit in Lisbon where I have just spent the morning meeting with some terrific startups. One question that was on a lot of people’s minds was what the election of Trump as the US President will mean. I think the right answer is: nobody knows and nobody will know for quite some time. The only thing that we can know right now is that the amount of perceived uncertainty has just shot up dramatically (*). And when that happens a lot of investors put their foot on the b...

There is a lot of excitement among startups and other companies about building for Amazon’s and Google’s voice platforms. My reaction to this can be summed up as follows:Google and Amazon will have a perfect copy of every enduser interaction. So anything that takes off they can wrap into the core based on what they have learned. And something that can be accessed directly by saying just “Alexa” or “OK Google” will alway get more use then something where you need to add another provider’s name...

There is a lot of excitement among startups and other companies about building for Amazon’s and Google’s voice platforms. My reaction to this can be summed up as follows:Google and Amazon will have a perfect copy of every enduser interaction. So anything that takes off they can wrap into the core based on what they have learned. And something that can be accessed directly by saying just “Alexa” or “OK Google” will alway get more use then something where you need to add another provider’s name...

Today in Uncertainty Wednesday we are continuing to look at what limits exist on explanations. If you are just coming into this series now, you will definitely want to start all the way back with the framework which sets out the relationship between reality, observations and explanations. I introduced explanations as abstracted relational stories about reality. These generally can be formalized (at least over time) as a set of mathematical equations or other logical expressions. This mathemat...

Today in Uncertainty Wednesday we are continuing to look at what limits exist on explanations. If you are just coming into this series now, you will definitely want to start all the way back with the framework which sets out the relationship between reality, observations and explanations. I introduced explanations as abstracted relational stories about reality. These generally can be formalized (at least over time) as a set of mathematical equations or other logical expressions. This mathemat...

Earlier this week at WebSummit in Lisbon I gave a talk about my favorite topic: our need to get past the Industrial Age. The result of the US Presidential Election is the strongest evidence yet how urgently we need to come up with a more coherent view of the future, or we will have demagogues lead us back into the past. Here is the video of the talk and the slides are embedded below (and you can read more in my draft book World After Capital)

Earlier this week at WebSummit in Lisbon I gave a talk about my favorite topic: our need to get past the Industrial Age. The result of the US Presidential Election is the strongest evidence yet how urgently we need to come up with a more coherent view of the future, or we will have demagogues lead us back into the past. Here is the video of the talk and the slides are embedded below (and you can read more in my draft book World After Capital)

Uncertainty Wednesday will return next, well, Wednesday. In the meantime there will be a lot of uncertainty.

Uncertainty Wednesday will return next, well, Wednesday. In the meantime there will be a lot of uncertainty.

Today: a few thoughts on voting. First and most important: go vote. Democracy does not work when citizens don’t vote. Voting is full of paradoxes. Maybe the biggest one of all is that after the fact a lot of votes won’t matter, but that is only after the fact. It is the very act of voting that establishes that fact in the first place. So ex ante every vote matters! A bunch of people in my twitter feed have complained about the US presidential election system. And yes there are problems with i...

Today: a few thoughts on voting. First and most important: go vote. Democracy does not work when citizens don’t vote. Voting is full of paradoxes. Maybe the biggest one of all is that after the fact a lot of votes won’t matter, but that is only after the fact. It is the very act of voting that establishes that fact in the first place. So ex ante every vote matters! A bunch of people in my twitter feed have complained about the US presidential election system. And yes there are problems with i...

Tomorrow evening I will be giving a talk on the “Future of Code” at the NASDAQ Startup CTO Summit. The amount of code in the world has been growing exponentially for years. And that means that when you are in 2026 looking back, something like 75% or more of all code will have been written in the last ten years. In the future, code will be everywhere, from your toothbrush to your car, and everything will be powered by code, from your daily reading to which company selects you for a project. An...

Tomorrow evening I will be giving a talk on the “Future of Code” at the NASDAQ Startup CTO Summit. The amount of code in the world has been growing exponentially for years. And that means that when you are in 2026 looking back, something like 75% or more of all code will have been written in the last ten years. In the future, code will be everywhere, from your toothbrush to your car, and everything will be powered by code, from your daily reading to which company selects you for a project. An...