Understanding uncertainty, and even more so explaining it, is hard is because it requires a foundational framework — the reason that most explanations feel isolated is that they avoid this initial step. Today’s Uncertainty Wednesday post is my first cut at presenting the framework, so YMMV. I have found on other difficult topics, such as those covered in my book, it has taken me years of writing and thinking to achieve even moderate clarity. With that caveat in place, here we go. The framewor...
